Unemployment
Few economic indicators are of more concern to Americans than
unemployment statistics. The traditional unemployment rate is
calculated from monthly household survey results using a fairly
explicit qualification of "unemployed" (essentially unemployed and
currently looking for full time employment) leaving many workers to be
effectively "on the margin", either employed in part time work when
full time is preferred or simply unemployed and no longer looking for
work. The Bureau of Labor Statistics considers "marginally attached"
workers (including discouraged workers) and persons who have settled
for part time employment to be "underutilized" labor.
The broadest view of unemployment (and most accurate) should include
both traditionally unemployed workers and all other under utilized
workers. Each percentage rate in September 2004 and September 2009 is
as follows:
|
Sept. 2004 |
Sept. 2009 |
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) |
5.4% |
9.8% |
Total Unemployment |
9.5% |
16.5% |
Note that the "spread" between the BLS and Total Unemployment has
widened from 4% to 7%. In other words, not only has the percentage of
those currently looking for work increased, but those on the margin
have increased an additional 3 percentage points. Another way of
looking at this is that the spread has grown by an astounding 75%. What
can be some of the causes for both the BLS and Total Unemployment rates
to increase?
- The market place has been saturated with goods well beyond what is
needed by the American consumer. The best example of this is the auto
industry. There simply is not a market or a demand for the quantity of
automobiles that have been produced, or required to be produced to
maintain factory employment levels. Energy cost has also influenced the
type of automobiles wanted by consumers. Another example is
televisions. How many televisions can one (1) home use? Yet more and
more have been produced with no place to go. Many other examples can be
stated.
- When the subprime loan market collapsed, banks could not loan to
large or small businesses to maintain the flow of capital into the
business, thereby requiring the business to slow down, and in some
cases close up shop. In addition, the banks were "bailed out" to the
tune of billions, while at the same time increasing the interest rate
to both businesses and consumers, thereby reducing the requirement for
maintaining the current work force, thereby reducing spendable income
to the unemployed work force, thereby reducing demand for goods and
services, thereby reducing the requirement of maintaining or increasing
the work force.
- Sources & further factors affecting unemployment can be obtained from:
1.www.seekingalpha.com
2.www.bls.gov
3.www.econlib.com
4.www.cato.org
5.www.tsowell.com
The economy can not improve until employment increases. If there is
no purchasing power, the surplus goods will remain in inventory. If
stimulus money is utilized, the money needs to go to the place(s) where
the most jobs can be created. That is the public sector, since
government does not create any products, it just spends money. And with
unemployment also comes lower taxable income which results in more
money printed (inflation) and higher taxes on those who are still
employed, or even retired. The solution is smaller government, less
Government spending, as well as a reduction in business and personal
taxes.
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